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November 16, 2020
While we've known for over a week who's going to be our next president, there is one person who still appears to be a bit unclear on how matters stand, and that would be our current POTUS. Not only has he not conceded the election, but he is still issuing a regular stream of angry tweets such as a recent one claiming "I won the Election!" (Twitter drily notes: "Official sources called this election differently.) Why is Mr. Trump carrying on so, when it appears his legal challenges have about as much chance as a white Christmas on Waikiki?
It's actually possible that his antics, which certainly make him look bad in the eyes of those who already dislike him, are actually intended to rally those who support him no matter what. While Trump seemingly has no intention to admit that he lost the election fair and square (we assess that at "blizzard in Bali" probability level), The Independent says he's told his aides that if (read: when) Biden is certified as president-elect, he may announce his candidacy for 2024. So what are Trump's chances if he does choose to run for president a third time? We asked political and corporate advisor Dr. Reneé Carr for her take on the matter.
Trump has strong supporters, but it's too early to know how things will play out
Carr says Trump actually stands a good chance of becoming the second president since Grover Cleveland to be voted out of office, then return to serve a second non-consecutive term. She confirms that yes, this is largely due to the fact that "Trump will continue to stoke the emotions and energy of his loyal voter base through claims of election fraud," saying that "By his continued accusations of the election being 'stolen' from him, this prevents psychological closure of the election for both himself and those who voted for him." Both the discomfort that comes from this lack of closure, along with Trump's promoting the idea of a great injustice being done to him (and by extension, to those who voted for him) will, according to Carr, "intensify his voters' loyalty."
She does note, however, that another four years of Trump is not a done deal, since "if President-elect Biden can provide significant economic recovery to America — especially to families of auto industry workers and other blue collar occupations — as well as provide meaningful and immediate tax cuts for small businesses,'" then there's actually a good chance that he could "greatly decrease Trump's chances of being reelected." Remember, a lot can happen in four years, no matter who's in charge. Let's just try to stay calm, stay positive, and hope that these inevitable changes will be for the better.
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